This is the March 2021 version of this tool. For the September 2021 version that includes border openings, please go HERE.

Full Simulation

This page contains a more detailed version of the Infections plot that is included on the COVID-19 Pandemic Trade-offs page.

In the following graph, each line on the plot corresponds to one run of the model—one possible path that infection numbers could take under the selected scenario and policy response. The lines are coloured by the Stage of restrictions that are in place at any given time.

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Government & Public Response

Vaccine Uptake

Percentage of people who accept vaccination when they are offered it.

Details

Strategy Relaxation

Whether to relax stage triggers as vaccination progresses.

Details

Strategy

Government strategy for moving between different levels of restrictions.

Details

Infectivity

Phase 1 Vaccine Efficacy

Percentage by which the vaccine administered in phase 1 would reduce transmission in a fully vaccinated population.

Details

Phase 2 & 3 Vaccine Efficacy

Percentage by which the vaccine administered in phases 2 and beyond would reduce transmission in a fully vaccinated population.

Details

Unmitigated Reproduction Rate

Average number of people each infected person infects with no interventions, such as masks, physical distancing, case isolation, and vaccination.

Details

Download data (12.8 MB)

To learn more about this modelling, please see the Model Details page.

View model details

Contributors

The data visualisations and interface for this tool were developed by Luke Thorburn.
The modelling was led by Dr Tim Wilson, assisted by Haifeng Zhao and Sachith Seneviratne. The original agent-based model was built by Dr Jason Thompson, assisted by Profs Rod McClure, Mark Stevenson and Tony Blakely. The integrated epidemiological and economic model (proportional multistate lifetable) is a collaboration between the University of Melbourne and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (University of Washington), with key contributions from: Prof Abie Flaxman and Mr James Collins (IHME); Drs Rob Moss, Nic Geard, Patrick Andersen and Tim Wilson (University of Melbourne), assisted by all members of the Population Interventions Unit (Drs Driss Ait Ouakrim and Laxman Bablani, and Profs Vijaya Sundararajan and Tony Blakely).
The determination of which diseases and conditions are impacted by COVID-19 restrictions, and with what magnitude, was undertaken by Dr Driss Ait Ouakrim, Ms Ameera Katar, Mr Patrick Abraham, Dr Natalie Carvalho and Prof Nathan Grills.
Overall leadership of the body of work was by Prof Tony Blakely.
Web hosting and technical support was provided by Grace Dong and Dr Melissa Makin.
We acknowledge a generous anonymous philanthropic grant, through Advancement, that enabled this project.

Contact Details

Please direct media or other enquiries about this research to the Population Interventions Unit at the following address.

Email: population-interventions@unimelb.edu.au